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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
6
8
1
1
6
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
16
21
49
1
1
6
8
13
17
27
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
13
75
100
13
13
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
28
37
86
2
2
11
14
23
30
47
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.88 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.099
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.207
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.039 0.088
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.250
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00