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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
1
0
0
1
2
1
0
3
3
2
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
18
12
19
49
2
1
0
3
20
14
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
38
50
13
0
0
13
25
13
0
38
38
25
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
7
32
21
34
88
4
2
0
5
36
25
39
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.214
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 3.50 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.179
true Heidke skill score: -0.561 true Heidke skill score: -0.069
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.179
true Kuipers skill score: -0.548 true Kuipers skill score: -0.078
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.235 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.273 -0.091 -0.231
equitable threat score:
-0.063 -0.006 -0.049
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.755 1.000
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00