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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
1
1
0
2
0
1
2
3
1
2
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
14
21
16
51
0
1
2
3
14
22
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
29
29
14
14
0
29
0
14
29
43
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
25
38
29
91
0
2
4
5
25
39
36
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 1.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.32 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.097 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.107 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.095
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.176 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.030 0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.955 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.588 0.333
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00