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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
6
5
2
13
6
6
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
11
13
24
48
6
5
2
13
17
18
27
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
0
7
0
7
40
33
13
87
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
18
21
39
77
10
8
3
21
27
29
44
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 0.17 4.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.67 0.48
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.137
true Heidke skill score: -0.034 true Heidke skill score: -0.116
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.137
true Kuipers skill score: -0.042 true Kuipers skill score: -0.121
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.245 0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.061 0.107 -0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.024 -0.113
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.722 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.729 0.846
samples: 15 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 24.19 %coverage: 100.00