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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809-199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
4
3
1
8
4
3
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
7
17
24
48
4
3
1
8
11
20
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
0
0
0
44
33
11
89
44
33
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
12
30
42
84
7
5
2
14
19
35
46
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.40 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.180 true Heidke skill score: -0.074
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.212 true Kuipers skill score: -0.075
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.030
equitable threat score:
-0.098 0.000 -0.108
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.005 -0.090
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.038
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.646 0.875
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00