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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
7
3
13
4
7
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
13
19
49
3
7
3
13
20
20
22
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
7
21
50
21
93
29
50
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
21
31
79
5
11
5
21
32
32
35
100

hitrate: 0.214 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.14 4.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.45 0.59
Heidke skill score: -0.179 Heidke skill score: -0.113
true Heidke skill score: -0.027 true Heidke skill score: -0.106
Kuipers skill score: -0.179 Kuipers skill score: -0.113
true Kuipers skill score: -0.033 true Kuipers skill score: -0.107
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.231
threat score:
0.000 0.232 0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 0.021
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.070 -0.059
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.735 0.769
samples: 14 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 22.58 %coverage: 100.00