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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
3
4
7
1
3
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
18
18
50
0
3
4
7
14
21
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
13
0
38
50
88
13
38
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
32
32
88
0
5
7
12
25
37
39
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.386
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.38 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.026 true Kuipers skill score: 0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.340 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.103 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.012 0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.640 0.429
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00