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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
5
4
2
11
5
5
3
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
19
15
46
5
4
2
11
17
23
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
15
38
31
15
85
38
38
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
33
26
81
9
7
4
19
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.40 3.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.65
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.032 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.036 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.380 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.044 -0.057
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.014 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.818
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.587 0.818
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00