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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
1
4
1
3
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
25
18
14
57
1
2
1
4
26
21
15
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
0
0
0
20
40
20
80
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
40
29
23
92
2
3
2
6
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.71 0.27
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.040
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.040
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.056
equitable threat score:
-0.111 0.000 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.032 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.684 0.750
samples: 5 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 8.06 %coverage: 100.00