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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
5
5
1
11
6
5
1
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
15
20
51
5
5
1
11
22
20
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
42
42
8
92
50
42
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
25
24
32
81
8
8
2
17
35
32
33
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 0.00 11.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.55 0.52
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.055 true Heidke skill score: -0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.085 true Kuipers skill score: -0.076
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.091
threat score:
0.045 0.268 0.032
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.008
equitable threat score:
0.030 -0.030 -0.098
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.045 0.750 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.909
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.909
samples: 12 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00