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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901-199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
2
2
1
5
2
4
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
16
16
18
50
2
2
1
5
18
19
20
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
11
22
0
11
11
22
22
22
11
56
22
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
28
28
32
88
4
4
2
9
32
33
35
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.63 0.25
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.167 true Heidke skill score: -0.054
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.173 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.302 0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.027 -0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.018 -0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.050
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.680 0.800
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00