CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
6
1
3
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
23
12
56
1
3
2
6
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
50
33
100
17
50
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
37
19
90
2
5
3
10
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.15 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.390 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.039
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.589 0.667
samples: 6 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 9.68 %coverage: 100.00