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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
2
4
0
3
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
16
19
59
0
2
2
4
24
18
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
20
0
40
40
80
0
60
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
25
30
94
0
3
3
6
38
29
33
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.28 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.286 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.729 0.500
samples: 5 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 7.94 %coverage: 100.00