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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
18
26
60
1
1
1
3
17
19
27
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
29
41
95
2
2
2
5
27
30
43
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.16 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.295 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.002 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.667
samples: 3 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00