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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904-199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
3
1
6
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
14
17
19
50
2
3
1
6
16
20
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
14
14
0
0
0
0
29
43
14
86
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
25
30
33
88
4
5
2
11
28
35
37
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.50 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.219 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.321 0.038
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.000 -0.135
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.015 -0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.660 0.833
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00