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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
5
0
3
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
26
16
58
0
3
2
5
16
29
18
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
40
100
0
60
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
41
25
92
0
5
3
8
25
46
29
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.444
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.28
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.167
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.167
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.426 0.095
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.020 0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.897 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.552 0.600
samples: 5 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 7.94 %coverage: 100.00