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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
3
2
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
19
17
22
58
1
1
0
2
22
19
22
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
17
0
50
0
0
17
17
17
17
0
33
50
33
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
30
27
35
92
2
2
0
3
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.05 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: -0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.087 0.283 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.200 -0.125 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.012 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.707 1.000
samples: 6 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00