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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907-199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
3
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
19
16
22
57
1
2
0
3
22
19
22
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
14
0
43
0
0
14
14
14
29
0
43
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
30
25
35
90
2
3
0
5
35
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.033 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.087 0.267 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.263 -0.120 -0.120
equitable threat score:
0.043 -0.028 -0.044
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.842 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.719 1.000
samples: 7 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 11.11 %coverage: 100.00