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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
2
1
2
5
4
2
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
23
16
18
57
2
1
2
5
26
17
20
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
11
11
11
33
22
11
22
56
44
22
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
37
25
29
90
3
2
3
8
41
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 1.50 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 3.35 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.196 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.212 true Kuipers skill score: 0.039
threat score:
0.250 0.250 0.333
threat score:
0.038 0.276 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.156 0.100 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.015 0.019
probability of detection:
0.250 0.500 0.667
probability of detection:
0.038 0.941 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.719 0.600
samples: 9 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00