CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
5
0
1
6
1
3
2
6
7
3
3
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
24
14
18
56
1
3
2
6
26
17
20
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
38
0
8
46
8
23
15
46
54
23
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
38
22
29
89
2
5
3
10
41
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 3.29 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.032 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.039 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.038 0.237 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.071 -0.182 0.110
equitable threat score:
0.023 -0.025 0.004
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.038 0.824 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.667
samples: 13 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 20.63 %coverage: 100.00