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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
5
5
3
1
9
10
3
1
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
17
11
54
5
3
1
9
31
20
12
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
0
0
36
36
21
7
64
71
21
7
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
41
27
17
86
8
5
2
14
49
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.071 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.67 9.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.70 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.393 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.393 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.116 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.298 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.155 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 -0.039
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.685 0.889
samples: 14 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 22.22 %coverage: 100.00