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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909-199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
1
1
0
2
11
3
1
15
14
4
1
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
18
17
11
46
11
3
1
15
31
20
12
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
5
5
0
11
58
16
5
79
74
21
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
29
27
17
73
17
5
2
24
49
32
19
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 0.50 15.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.30 1.25
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.081 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.169 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.143 0.200 0.067
threat score:
0.065 0.347 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.126 0.015
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.070 -0.080
probability of detection:
0.143 0.250 1.000
probability of detection:
0.065 0.850 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.933
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 0.933
samples: 19 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 30.16 %coverage: 100.00