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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910-199912

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
10
3
0
13
12
3
0
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
8
4
50
10
3
0
13
48
11
4
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
13
67
20
0
87
80
20
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
60
13
6
79
16
5
0
21
76
17
6
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.127
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.55 3.25
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.310
true Heidke skill score: -0.027 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.310
true Kuipers skill score: -0.083 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.151 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.087 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 -0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.727 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.840 1.000
samples: 15 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00