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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911-200001

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
3
0
6
4
3
0
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
40
15
2
57
3
3
0
6
43
18
2
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
0
0
14
43
43
0
86
57
43
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
63
24
3
90
5
5
0
10
68
29
3
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.17 3.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.065 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.052
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.120 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.029 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.737 1.000
samples: 7 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 11.11 %coverage: 100.00