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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199912-200002

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
0
3
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
30
19
10
59
0
2
1
3
30
22
11
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
0
0
0
0
0
50
25
75
0
75
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
48
30
16
94
0
3
2
5
48
35
17
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.68 0.27
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.077 true Heidke skill score: -0.039
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.306 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.039 0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.864 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.678 0.667
samples: 4 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 6.35 %coverage: 100.00