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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200001-200003

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
5
3
10
3
5
3
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
16
16
55
2
5
3
10
25
21
19
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
9
18
45
27
91
27
45
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
25
25
85
3
8
5
15
38
32
29
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.20 3.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.62 0.53
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.023 true Heidke skill score: -0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.026 true Kuipers skill score: -0.039
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.267 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.082 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.042 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.762 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.709 0.700
samples: 11 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 16.92 %coverage: 100.00