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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200002-200004

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
5
1
1
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
18
20
59
1
1
3
5
22
19
23
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
17
17
50
83
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
28
31
92
2
2
5
8
34
30
36
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.11 0.22
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.008
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.008
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.120
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.091 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.695 0.400
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00