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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200003-200005

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
3
4
2
0
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
29
13
61
1
0
3
4
20
29
16
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
20
20
0
60
80
40
0
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
45
20
94
2
0
5
6
31
45
25
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.492
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.10 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.238
true Heidke skill score: 0.231 true Heidke skill score: 0.103
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.238
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.475 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.053 0.126
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.525 0.250
samples: 5 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 7.69 %coverage: 100.00