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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200004-200006

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
16
27
62
1
1
1
3
20
17
28
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
25
25
75
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
25
42
95
2
2
2
5
31
26
43
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.262
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.65 0.11
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.108
true Heidke skill score: -0.333 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.108
true Kuipers skill score: -0.300 true Kuipers skill score: -0.012
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.254 0.033
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.742 0.667
samples: 4 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 6.15 %coverage: 100.00