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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006-200008

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
1
1
0
1
3
4
2
3
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
27
16
14
57
0
1
3
4
29
19
17
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
0
44
0
0
11
11
0
11
33
44
22
33
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
42
25
22
88
0
2
5
6
45
29
26
100

hitrate: 0.556 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.346 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.065 0.267 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.357 -0.091 0.379
equitable threat score:
0.007 -0.015 0.115
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.069 0.842 0.176
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.719 0.250
samples: 9 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 13.85 %coverage: 100.00