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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
0
1
1
2
0
2
0
2
1
6
2
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
28
18
14
60
0
2
0
2
29
23
15
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
33
11
56
0
11
11
22
0
22
0
22
11
67
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
7
42
27
21
90
0
3
0
3
43
34
22
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.284
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 2.61 0.13
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: -0.050 true Heidke skill score: -0.096
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: -0.075 true Kuipers skill score: -0.097
threat score:
0.200 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.030 0.277 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.100 -0.059 -0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.058 -0.027
probability of detection:
1.000 0.167 0.000
probability of detection:
0.034 0.783 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.700 1.000
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00