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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
3
4
8
1
4
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
27
19
10
56
1
3
4
8
28
23
14
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
0
10
0
0
10
10
10
30
40
80
10
40
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
42
29
15
86
2
5
6
12
43
35
22
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.354
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.43 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.031
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.031
true Kuipers skill score: -0.086 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.317 0.222
equitable threat score:
-0.053 -0.087 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.020 0.140
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.661 0.500
samples: 10 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 15.38 %coverage: 100.00