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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200007-200009

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
2
1
3
0
2
0
2
1
6
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
27
19
14
60
0
2
0
2
28
23
14
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
25
0
38
0
25
13
38
0
25
0
25
13
75
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
42
29
22
92
0
3
0
3
43
35
22
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.61 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.024 true Heidke skill score: -0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.038 true Kuipers skill score: -0.071
threat score:
0.333 0.286 0.000
threat score:
0.033 0.297 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.238 -0.053 -0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.052 -0.028
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.036 0.826 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.683 1.000
samples: 8 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 12.31 %coverage: 100.00