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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
2
5
2
4
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
25
16
17
58
1
2
2
5
26
19
20
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
10
20
10
10
10
30
10
20
20
50
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
38
25
26
89
2
3
3
8
40
29
31
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.277
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.75 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 3.05 0.25
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.085
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.085
true Kuipers skill score: -0.094 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.111 -0.042 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.022 0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.724 0.600
samples: 10 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 15.38 %coverage: 100.00