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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
3
6
1
2
2
5
4
2
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
17
18
60
1
2
2
5
26
19
20
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
0
27
55
9
18
18
45
36
18
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
26
28
92
2
3
3
8
40
29
31
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.16 0.25
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.179 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.197 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.274 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.158 -0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.012 0.022
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.717 0.600
samples: 11 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 16.92 %coverage: 100.00