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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200009-200011

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
3
9
0
3
3
6
0
9
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
34
18
61
0
3
3
6
9
37
21
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
40
20
60
0
20
20
40
0
60
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
51
27
91
0
4
4
9
13
55
31
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.552
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.65 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.328
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.328
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.531 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.919 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.443 0.500
samples: 15 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 22.39 %coverage: 100.00