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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200009-200011

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
6
4
11
0
7
3
10
1
13
7
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
28
18
55
0
7
3
10
9
35
21
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
29
19
52
0
33
14
48
5
62
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
43
28
85
0
11
5
15
14
54
32
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.477
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.85 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.57 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.215
true Heidke skill score: -0.105 true Heidke skill score: -0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.215
true Kuipers skill score: -0.108 true Kuipers skill score: -0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.214
threat score:
0.000 0.452 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.072 -0.031
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.050 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.462 0.429
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.455 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.491 0.700
samples: 21 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 32.31 %coverage: 100.00