CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200010-200012

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
4
2
7
0
2
1
3
1
7
3
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
24
19
20
63
0
2
1
3
24
22
21
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
0
9
9
36
18
64
0
18
9
27
9
64
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
36
28
30
94
0
3
1
4
36
33
31
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.299
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.86 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: -0.052
true Heidke skill score: -0.065 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: -0.052
true Kuipers skill score: -0.065 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.288 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.048 -0.082 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.037 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.864 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.429 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.698 0.667
samples: 11 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 16.42 %coverage: 100.00