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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200010-200012

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
4
2
7
0
2
1
3
1
7
3
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
23
18
20
61
0
2
1
3
23
21
21
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
0
9
9
36
18
64
0
18
9
27
9
64
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
35
28
31
94
0
3
2
5
35
32
32
100

hitrate: 0.455 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.90 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.182 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.065 true Heidke skill score: -0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.182 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.065 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.281 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.048 -0.082 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.039 0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.429 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.705 0.667
samples: 11 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 16.92 %coverage: 100.00