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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200011-200101

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
1
4
5
1
2
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
22
12
62
0
1
4
5
28
23
16
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
14
0
29
0
14
57
71
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
42
33
18
93
0
1
6
7
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.70 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: 0.440 true Heidke skill score: 0.079
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: 0.393 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.349 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.533
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.178
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.645 0.200
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00