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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012-200102

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
30
22
10
62
0
0
4
4
30
23
14
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
80
80
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
45
33
15
93
0
0
6
6
45
34
21
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.70 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: 0.444 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.080
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.349 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.017 0.240
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.645 0.000
samples: 5 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 7.46 %coverage: 100.00