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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
2
2
3
7
4
2
4
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
24
21
15
60
2
2
3
7
27
23
18
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
0
10
10
0
10
20
20
20
30
70
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
35
31
22
88
3
3
4
10
40
34
26
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 1.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.61 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.051
true Heidke skill score: 0.063 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.051
true Kuipers skill score: 0.063 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.037 0.339 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.167 -0.111 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.017 0.057
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.037 0.913 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.650 0.571
samples: 10 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 14.71 %coverage: 100.00