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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
2
0
4
2
3
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
35
13
61
2
2
0
4
15
37
13
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
20
40
40
0
80
40
60
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
54
20
94
3
3
0
6
23
57
20
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.538
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.65 0.31
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.308
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.308
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.556 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 -0.049
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.946 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.426 1.000
samples: 5 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 7.69 %coverage: 100.00