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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200103-200105

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
31
14
63
0
1
1
2
18
32
15
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
48
22
97
0
2
2
3
28
49
23
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.492
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.97 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.238
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.238
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.484 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.035
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.969 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.508 0.500
samples: 2 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 3.08 %coverage: 100.00