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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
4
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
18
23
22
63
0
2
0
2
18
26
22
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
0
25
0
25
0
50
0
50
0
100
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
27
35
33
95
0
3
0
3
27
39
33
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.25 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.42 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.069
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.348 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 -0.044 -0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 1.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00