CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
3
1
0
4
3
2
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
23
22
62
3
1
0
4
20
24
22
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
20
60
20
0
80
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
35
33
94
5
2
0
6
30
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.58 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.365 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.375 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.958 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.629 1.000
samples: 5 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 7.58 %coverage: 100.00