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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
25
24
65
0
0
0
0
17
25
24
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
0
0
0
0
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
24
38
36
98
0
0
0
0
26
38
36
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.394
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.60 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.026
threat score:
0.500 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.059 0.385 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.250 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.615 0.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00