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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
0
0
1
1
2
1
0
3
4
2
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
2
5
22
19
17
58
2
1
0
3
26
21
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
11
22
56
0
0
11
11
22
11
0
33
44
22
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
3
8
33
29
26
88
3
2
0
5
39
32
29
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.318
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.25 0.50 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.76 0.16
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.023
true Heidke skill score: -0.260 true Heidke skill score: -0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.023
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.007
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.069 0.317 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.047 -0.080 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.013 -0.041
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.905 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.672 1.000
samples: 9 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 13.64 %coverage: 100.00