CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
0
1
3
4
2
2
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
39
16
5
60
0
1
3
4
41
17
8
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
0
0
29
0
14
0
14
0
14
43
57
29
29
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
59
24
8
91
0
2
5
6
62
26
12
100

hitrate: 0.857 hitrate: 0.318
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.53 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.786 Heidke skill score: -0.023
true Heidke skill score: 0.774 true Heidke skill score: 0.078
Kuipers skill score: 0.786 Kuipers skill score: -0.023
true Kuipers skill score: 0.750 true Kuipers skill score: 0.109
threat score:
1.000 0.500 0.750
threat score:
0.049 0.262 0.333
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.417 0.562
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.012 0.295
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.049 0.941 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.733 0.250
samples: 7 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 10.61 %coverage: 100.00