CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
3
1
0
4
3
1
0
4
7
2
0
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
39
14
7
60
3
1
0
4
43
15
7
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
33
11
0
44
33
11
0
44
78
22
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
60
22
11
92
5
2
0
6
66
23
11
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.231
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.02 4.00 0.57
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.154
true Heidke skill score: 0.045 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.154
true Kuipers skill score: 0.107 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.143 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.023 0.230 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.036 0.027 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.003 -0.041
probability of detection:
0.143 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.023 0.933 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.767 1.000
samples: 9 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 13.85 %coverage: 100.00